本書由指數基金之父約翰・柏格(John C.Bogle)撰寫 ,台灣版是"約翰柏格投資常識",巴菲特亦曾在2014致波克夏股東的信中親筆推薦:
There are a few investment managers, of course, who are very good – though in the short run, it’s difficult to determine whether a great record is due to luck or talent. Most advisors, however, are far better at generating high fees than they are at generating high returns. In truth, their core competence is salesmanship. Rather than listen to their siren songs, investors – large and small – should instead read Jack Bogle’s The Little Book of Common Sense Investing
的確有少數投資經理非常出色,儘管從短期來看,很難確定出色的記錄是靠運氣還是靠天賦。然而,大多數顧問在產生高額費用方面遠勝於他們正在產生的高回報。 實際上,他們的核心能力是推銷技巧。 投資者不論大戶或散戶,與其聽他們的花言巧語,不如閱讀約翰・柏格的《一本書學識投資》。
「成功的投資完全取決於常識」
這是本書導讀的第一句,看似很簡單,但並不容易。常識不是高深的理論,也不是複雜的數學計算。投資常識就是用低成本持有所有上市公司股票,賺取整體市場成長的合理回報。簡單卻不容易是因為多數投資人都不甘平凡,認為自己有足夠能力戰勝大盤。
股票市場的合理回報
持有股票就是企業的股東,長遠來看,企業的回報就是股東的投資回報,公式如下:
股票市場回報=投資回報+投機回報
投資回報 = 企業實際營運所帶來的股息 (dividend yield) + 盈餘成長 (earnings growth) 。
投機回報 = 投資人情緒造成市盈率的變化而帶來的額外回報。投資人信心增強或減弱,市盈率便上升或下降。
1900-2016年美股平均年回報為9% (4.4% 股息 + 4.6% 盈餘成長),整體市場回報為9.5% (包含 0.5%的投機回報)
複利的真相 - 贏家遊戲變成輸家遊戲
本書第 4 章,柏格講述了投資成本對回報的影響。
低微算術的無情規則 (The Relentless Rules of Humble Arithmetic) : 市場回報 - 金融中介的成本 = 投資人回報
下圖為書中例子,如市場回報為 7%,扣掉 2% 支出,投資者賺取 5% 的結果,50年後,7% 回報率令原先的 $10,000 成長到 $294,600 ,而 5% 回報率則令原先的 $10,000 成長到只有 $114,700 ,兩者回報的差異為 $179,900。 每年2%的成本,會令投資人少了 61% 的回報。
別找針了,買下整堆乾草吧
"Don’t look for the needle, buy the haystack."
本書第 10 章,柏格先生做了些統計,1970-2016年間,355 只基金中有 281 只倒閉,只餘下73 只,失敗率接近 80%。而跑贏 S&P500 指數的基金只有 2 只。勝率只有 0.56%。
約翰柏格投資常識
- 必須儘早開始投資,而且要定期儲蓄。
- 投資是有風險的,但我們也知道,不投資注定我們會財務失敗。
- 股票和債券是市場回報的來源,這是智慧的開端。
- 選擇股票存在風險,選擇基金經理和投資風格也有風險,通過傳統指數型基金分散投資,只剩下市場風險。
- 成本會造成影響,從長遠來看是壓倒性的影響,並且我們知道我們必須儘可能降低成本。
- 稅收很重要,而且它們也必須最小化。
- 跑贏市場或成功把握市場時機而沒有自相矛盾的情況下發生,可能對少數人有效,但對多數人無效。
- 我們永遠無法確定世界明天會變成怎樣,我們更不清楚10年後的世界會如何演變。然而,經由精明的資產配置以及明智的投資選擇,對於未來顛簸的旅途,應該可以安然渡過。
以下是英文原文:
- We know that we must start to invest at the earliest possible moment, and continue to put money away regularly from then on.
- We know that investing entails risk. But we also know that not investing dooms us to financial failure.
- We know the sources of returns in the stock and bond markets, and that’s the beginning of wisdom.
- We know that the risk of selecting individual securities, as well as the risk of selecting both fund managers and investment styles, can be eliminated by the total diversification offered by the traditional index fund. Only market risk remains.
- We know that costs matter, overpoweringly in the long run, and we know that we must minimize them.
- We know that taxes matter, and that they, too, must be minimized.
- We know that neither beating the market nor successfully timing the market can be generalized without self-contradiction. What may work for the few cannot work for the many.
- Finally, we know what we don’t know. We can never be certain how our world will look tomorrow, and we know far less about how it will look a decade hence. But with intelligent asset allocation and sensible investment choices, we can be prepared for the inevitable bumps along the road, and should glide right through them.